Last night was the first debate of the Democratic Presidential hopefuls of this awfully drawn out campaign season. Since the Republicans only worry about three questions in campaigns (Do I like him, Does he care about my issue, and Is he strong) and don't generally address issues directly, they, as usual, haven't said much of anything. However, the Democrats have always worked under the premise that people actually care about the intricacies of political issues (not my experience) and therefore, we are having a Democratic primary debate 19 months before the Presidential election. So, ignoring the Iraq war for a moment, on which I generally agree with most democrats (that we need to go ahead and start leaving), I didn't see much in these candidates issues that will excite Americans to vote for them. Therefore, I think they need to watch out and hope that Bush continues to fight the Iraq war poorly, otherwise, if they don't have Iraq as an issue come November 2008, they may be in danger of losing, again. So... what are the prime issues for Democrats as portrayed recently (not just in last night's debates). It seems to me they are focusing primarily on 5 things. 1. Universal health care, 2. Rolling back or eliminating the "Bush" tax cuts, 3. A deal for illegal immigrants (whether they call it Amnesty or not), 4. Strengthening labor unions, and 5. Eliminating our dependence on foreign oil, which is being called an energy policy. I'll address each point:
1. There are millions of Americans who tragically can't afford health care. Also, there are some serious issues with the health care industry in this country that need to be addressed. Is throwing government money at the problem by creating a nationalized health care system the answer? I don't know. I tend to err on the side of trying EVERYTHING else before we start throwing government money at a problem, so I would tend to say that we haven't done that yet and therefore, the discussing of nationalized health care is premature.
2. I can certainly see the point of allowing some tax cuts expire, especially ones that helped ONLY the rich, like the elimination of the "death tax". Most Americans would never be affected by this tax because most of us wouldn't have millions of dollars in property and wealth to pass on to anyone. However, as a middle class American, I have received nice benefits from the elimination of the "marriage penalty" tax and from the increase in the child tax credits. Some of the candidates have publicly stated that they want to do away with ALL of the Bush tax cuts. This would essentially mean raising taxes on middle class Americans and even on poor Americans with children. That's certainly not an issue they can win on because nobody likes to have their taxes raised.
3. It is clear that people just don't want to let illegal immigrants have a free ride. Some candidates clearly recognize this, but I think they underestimate how emotional this issue is. My wife is a legal immigrant to this country and does not believe that people who came here illegally should be given any kind of special treatment. Having been through the process of immigration, we should be making our immigration process more streamlined and more difficult, not easier, and certainly not by giving free rides to anyone, especially since they've already broken the law just in coming here. I live in south Florida, which is a majority latino population. Of the people that I work with and live with and talk to on a regular basis, I have yet to find a single person here who supports this idea. It is almost universal that if they came illegally, they should be sent back. I tend to defer to my wife, who is generally non political, on this issue since my ancestors immigrated here over 300 years ago. I'm not sure, therefore, that this is an issue the Democrats can win on since the people these concepts would help, assist, etc. are unable to vote.
4. In regards to labor unions, I'm sure this issue will shore up the Democratic base in regards to how the unions vote. They've tended to support the Democrats in recent years and I'm sure this issue will help them, but I must admit that I've never been part of a union, don't really understand the need for any more power or laws to support them and therefore can't really comment on this issue. My only question is, does the union vote constitute enough constituents to win them the election in the absence of Iraq as an issue and I'm just not sure they do. Like I said though, I don't really know.
5. This last issue is really a non-starter. Everybody wants to be independent from foreign oil. Even Republicans say that as loudly as they can. The fact is that this administration has failed to establish clear and concise goals in order to achieve that, but I don't think the Democrats can use it as an issue to win on, because EVERYONE is for it. Perhaps the environmental issue could be used, global warming and pollution and even gas mileage and emissions for vehicles as well as investment in renewable resources. But not oil independence. Still, a clear energy policy probably is not enough on it's own to win them the election.
Basically, I am not sure that the platform that seems to be developing for the Democrats consists of domestic issues that people care enough about and agree with them on enough to get them elected in the absence of Iraq as an issue. Therefore, Iraq will need to still be an issue come November 2008 and I so hope it isn't. Not because I want to see them lose, but because I want the troops to come home as much as everyone else does.
1 comment:
Oil independence is impossible and undesirable. The only way to make Texan oil that costs $35/barrel to pull out of the ground compete with Saudi oil that costs $5, is to put a $31 tax on the Saudis'. This will never happen.
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