All the wrong lessons in Wisconsin

I generally pay attention to political races that have national implications, but otherwise, outside of my state, I usually could care less.  However, to muster a recall election against a Republican governor in a Presidential election year when some believe the Democratic President is vulnerable has national implications.  Watching the news coverage, I am struck by just how many people completely missed what I think is really going on here.  They seem to have missed the point entirely.  This election was technically (and if you listen to the media...only) about two things.  1. It was a referendum on the performance of Walker and the Republican party in Wisconsin since they took over and 2. it was a referendum on the power and influence of labor unions.  Voter turnout was higher this time around than it was in 2010 and both candidates received more votes this time than they did before.  However, Walker won this one by 7% where he'd won the previous one by only 6%.  So, it seems that a LOT of Wisconsinites came out in defense of their duly elected representatives and completely repudiated the labor unions.  This is the take the media has taken, and there is a lot of truth there, but they do us all a disservice by not picking up on other realities.

In order to get the recall election, the unions got 900,000 signatures on a petition.  Then they only got 1.1 million votes for their candidate.  It seems there weren't a whole lot of people in Wisconsin beyond the 900K petition signers who are particularly upset with their governor.  I remember when the unions were marching in the streets and committing acts of violence in the state last year that I felt all they were achieving was to alienate themselves from the majority of the population because most people, regardless of party, don't want to see that kind of behavior.  With Walker getting an additional percentage point in this election, it seems I was right.  So, this shows support for Walker and a rejection of the unions.  Right?  If that is what you think, of course there is a lot of truth to that and as I stated earlier, that is largely how it is being reported.  But I really see something else here too.

What is that you ask?  Well, they are talking about Wisconsin as a state that is in contention for the Presidential race, aren't they?  Yes, but that isn't what I'm referring to.  They are talking about the loss of power and influence of the labor unions.  Yes, but that has been happening over time for quite a while and isn't what I'm referring to.  What I'd like to point out is the power of the silent majority.  I recently wrote another post on what constitutes "mainstream" in America.  I showed that there isn't really a mainstream anything.  However, with 40% of the population self identifying as conservative but only 21% as liberal, it seems odd that liberal candidates fare so well, so often.  This is largely due to one factor.  Independent and non-affiliated voters.  In recent polls, 35% of Americans claim to be Republicans, 33% Democrats, and 32% independents.  This is quite the voting bloc for the independent voter.

As I stated earlier, 40% of Americans claim to be conservative with 21% claiming to be liberal.  35% claim to be moderate, leaving another 4% to be...something else?  I certainly fall into the something else category myself since I don't self identify as any of these three.  However, in order to win, liberals MUST win moderates and independents.  They also have to win more of them because there are fewer liberals to start with.  Therefore, I submit that the real result in Wisconsin is not the loss of union power or the affirmation of Walker and other Wisconsin Republicans (although those are real outcomes and apparently the only ones the media can recognize), but rather the power of the third voting bloc...those who don't affiliate with either of the parties.  What this election tells me is that this third bloc is continuing the rightward trend that we saw on display with the 2010 national elections.  Perhaps not everywhere, but in surprising locations like traditionally Democratic Wisconsin.  It tells me that the 2012 election is going to be very interesting.  Let the fun begin!  Unfortunately, the fun part of this election that I feel will be most interesting is also the part I think will be generally ignored by the media because they are either too bias, too stupid, or too lazy to actually see what is really going on, in my opinion.