Total working age population: 243 million
Total employed: 142 million
Unemployed: 12 million
Not in labor force: 88 million
So, where does this 8.2% number come from? If you take the total number of "unemployed" and divide it by the working age population, then you should have a rate of about 5%. But no, we have to divide that 12 million by the number of people "participating" in the labor force. This is how they get the 8%. By ignoring about 88 million people. Sure, some of these legitimately do not work in the labor force and so one could argue should not count, such as stay at home moms. According to census data, there are 85 million mothers in the U.S., so even if they all stayed home (we know they don't), that still doesn't account for all 88 million folks.
This brings us to how they really get the rate. They do it through a number they call the "participation rate". The overall participation rate is 64%. Doesn't this mean that 37% of the people don't have a job? Yes...yes it does, but they do have to remove stay at home moms from the equation. After all, it makes up a good chunk of people...right? Men's participate rate is at 73% while women's participate rate is at 58%. So, that surely reflects stay at home moms, but doesn't account for all 88 million folks. In fact, it doesn't even accurately reflect stay at home moms. Census data again shows that 5 million women are stay at home moms. Therefore, that lowers the total participation rate down to 83 million since I legitimately would conclude you can't count stay at home moms in this number.
That brings us to the Civilian non-institutional population. This is where the total working age population is derived. It encompasses everyone in the U.S. who are 16 and up, are not in an institution and are not in the U.S. military. So, that's where the total number comes from. Which brings us back to the "participating" number again. That number is 155 million people. As far as I can tell, it is a completely made up number. However, apparently it does have a meaning. Here is the definition from Barron's Business Dictionary.
"All members of the population aged 16 or over in the United States who are not in the military or institutions such as prisons or mental hospitals and who are either employed or are unemployed and actively seeking and available for work. Every month the U.S. Department of Labor releases the unemployment rate, which is the percentage of the civilian labor force that is unemployed. In very bad economic times, the unemployment rate can be deceptive because it does not consider discouraged workers, those who are unemployed but have stopped actively seeking employment."
3 comments:
The author has obviously done his homework! It's almost sad to see the way that various departments have to rearrange numbers in an effort to keep people from realizing how difficult things really are. Yet the reality is that most people know more and more people who are unemployed. And most people also know more and more people who are giving up looking. This doesn't bode well for any political party or country. The author's words are a definite wake-up call and warning!
Children.
Retired.
There's all kinds of categories you haven't accounted for.
PS - the comment above is spam.
Yes, there are many categories I haven't accounted for and I'd be willing to listen to any argument that can account for a significant number of people in these numbers. I'm sure we could lower the number generally, but I am also certain that the unemployment rate is far higher than the 8.whatever the government is foisting on us these days.
My anonymous poster is NOT spam, I know who it is...they just choose to remain anonymous.
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